Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
